Dilbert Survey of Economists

Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, recently commissioned a survey of American economists to find out their opinions on the presidential candidates.

Interestingly, most economists are Democrats, and feel their party is the one with the right economic ideas.

When asked which candidate for President would be best for the economy in the long run, not surprisingly, 88% of Democratic economists think Obama would be best, while 80% of Republican economists pick McCain. Independent economists, who in this sample are largely from the academic world, lean toward Obama by 46% compared to 39% for McCain.

What we can interpret from this is that economists do not have an unbiased opinion. What about the independent economists?

Among Independents, things are less clear, with 54% thinking that in the long run there would either be no difference between the candidates or McCain would do better.

Scott Adams provided additional commentary on the survey today.

Everything we know about human nature tells us that people are usually rational when the choices are relatively simple and the data is known. For example, your choice of a grocery store is probably a rational decision based on things you easily understand, such as distance, price, and selection. But tribe loyalty tends to take over when the data is less clear, such as choosing a religion.

The way this applies to the survey of economists is that you should expect them to cross party lines when the data is clear and understood, and to lean toward party loyalties when things get fuzzy. That’s how humans are wired. We like our team.

Adams came to the same conclusion I did:

Personally, I think it is useful to know that economists didn’t cross party lines on the question of who would be the best president. I’ll keep that in mind the next time an economist expresses an opinion on this election.

Sorry, America. No easy answers. You still have to think for yourself. Or follow your tribe.